My Checklist for Tue. 7/19/2011 – We are in an uptrend

This is the checklist that I go through everyday when deciding whether or not to initiate any new long positions. They are in no particular order and I only buy when all of them are checked off.

  1. Is the $SPXEW (The S&P500 Equal Weighted Index) above its 20DSMA? : Yes
  2. Is the slope of the $SPXEW ‘s 20DSMA positively sloped? : Yes 0.15%
  3. In my universe of stocks which is comprised of stocks that have an average daily volume of at least 100k shares, trade above $5, and have positive sales growth versus the year ago quarter, is the ratio of new 52w highs to the sum of new highs + new lows 80% or greater? : Yes 85.71%
  4. Of the S&P500 stocks is the ratio of new 52w highs to the sum of new highs + new lows, known as the $RHSPX, 80% or greater? : Yes 80.00%
  5. Have you read at the last 10 press releases that the company you are looking at has issued? (MIND) Yes
  6. Does the company you are looking at have a CQGR of 3.75% or higher in their Sales, roughly equating to a 15% or higher yearly growth rate?
  7. Does the company you are looking at have a CQGR of 3.75% or higher in their Earnings, roughly equating to a 15% or higher yearly growth rate? (However, I am not dogmatic on this one, as sometimes stocks with negative earnings can still rip higher on the expectations of future profits)
  8. Have you listened to the company’s latest earnings conference call? Do you know what was/is their guidance for the next quarter? (MIND) Yes
  9. Do you know when the company you are looking at will report their next quarterly earnings? (MIND) Yes, Sept 5th.
  10. Can you name at least one, but preferably 2, of the company’s peers? For example Nike, Under Armor, Lululemon. Do you know when your company’s peers report earnings? (MIND) Yes, $IO reports on Aug 1st, $DWSN reports on Aug 3nd.
  11. Have you checked if this company history of beating analyst’s estimates? You can check here by typing in the ticker you want. (MIND) Yes
  12. Do you know what the short interest is on this stock? Both the number of days to cover and the percentage of the float.
  13. Do you know how many analysts cover the stock? How many are a buy, sell, or hold? Are there enough negative analysts to have future upgrades serve as positive catalysts?

$AAPL CRUSHED / DEMOLISHED / DESTROYED / OBLITERATED / SODOMIZED analysts estimates today reporting $7.79EPS vs $5.80 consensus estimates (a 34.3% beat) on Revs of $28.57B vs $24.92B estimates (a 14.6% beat).

I think we’ve seen the lows for the year. The PIIGS issue is by now are fully priced-in (we’ve only been talking about them for 15 months), the political theater in Washington is almost over, come hell or high water the debt ceiling will be raised. Obama will ignore congress if he has too and keep borrowing money unilaterally. As Bill Clinton said, “Let the courts stop me”, which of course the Supreme Court won’t stop Obama, the Republican supreme court, headed by a former corporate attorney John Roberts will agree with Obama. It’s all just horse shit. Plus we know that Bernanke is ready, willing, and able to deploy QE3. Get bullish today, get really really bullish on equities. We’re going to blast off higher from here.

Additionally earnings reactions:

  • 8 good earnings reactions today – AAPL higher, CSX higher, ISRG higher, VMW higher, KO higher, HOG higher, BTU higher, WFC higher.
  • 8 bad earnings reactions today – CMG lower, ALTR lower, FTNT lower, RVBD lower, YHOO lower, BAC lower, JNJ lower, GS lower
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